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AUD/USD is Underpressured although China has a Good Data

by Didimax Team

The AUD / USD pair showed their decline and they have been slumped drastically close to 0.6773. That was although the IHS markit reported the better caixin manufactured IMP data

That data was actually better than what people are anticipated. The economic data was 49.0 or higher than the consensus of 48.8. Last week, China's official Manufacturing PMI data fell to 47.0. 

This was against the expectations of 49.2 and the previous release of 48.0. It should be noted that Australia is China's main trading partner and manufacturing activity there has an impact on the Australian Dollar.

In early Tokyo, the Australian Dollar did not react much to the S&P Global Manufacturing IMP data. Economic data fell to 50.2 vs consensus and the previous release was 50.4.

 

US CPI has Fallen 

Meanwhile, investors are risk-averse. S&P500 futures fell sharply after a long weekend in the Asian session. The US Dollar Index or DXY has shown a rebound after falling near 103.20.

The USD index has a bigger traction because people expected a higher interest rate peak by the Federal Reserve. The aim is to combat stubborn inflation in the United States economy

There is no denying the fact that the main Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US economy has fallen after peaking at about 9.1%. The labor market is still tight and attracts higher wages to maintain balance. 

The situation like that could restore traction into overall inflation. That is why; market participants should prepare the right strategy and see what can happen in the future. 

Oil Opens this Year with a Decline 

Elsewhere, the price of crude oil tried to be stronger on Thursday or yesterday. That was happened after opening this year with more than nine percent decline in the market. 

That was actually the worst new year start opening since more than three decades based on a data from Refinitiv Eikon. Market participants took advantage of the decline in futures prices.

This condition was in line with expectations that oil demand for the long term would stabilize. The slight gains followed weakness for the second day in a row on fears of a global recession.

It also becomes the signs of short-term economic shocks of the United States (US) and China. For your information, they are the world's two biggest oil consumers. 

US Manufacturer Data was Contracted 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was recorded to move into the $73.65 per barrel area. Before, that commodity was briefly plummeting to the $72.73 per barrel area yesterday.

The united States manufacturing data contracted further in December. That was for sure weakening for the second month in a row and recording at 48.3 in December.

That data was down from the 49 recorded in November according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) last night. At the same time, a survey conducted by the US Department of Labor showed an important thing. 

It showed that job openings fell below forecasts. That was raising concerns that the Fed would use tight labor markets as an excuse to keep high interest rates in place for a longer period of time.

Before, Oil was in a Volatile Trade 

Oil prices fell in volatile trade on Tuesday, pressured by weak demand data from China, a bleak economic outlook and a stronger United States dollar.

The Chinese government raised export quotas for refined oil products in the first wave for 2023. Traders related the increase to expectations of poor domestic demand.

That was as the world's largest importer of crude continues to battle a wave of infections. China's factory activity also shrank in December as a surge in infections disrupted production.

The IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Sunday said the economies of the United States, Europe and China, all slowing simultaneously. It makes 2023 is more difficult than 2022 for the global economy.

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