The ruble touched a record low of 110 against the dollar in Moscow crept back closer to 100 on other trading platforms, although it continues to come under pressure as Russia's financial system teeters under the weight of Western sanctions imposed on the currency.
The Russian stock market remains closed and bond trading exhibits wide bid-ask spreads and small to no volume. The ruble fell 4.5% to 106.02 against the dollar in Moscow trade, earlier reaching 110.0, a record low.
It has lost 30% of its value against the dollar since the start of the year. Against, the euro, it fell 2.5% on Wednesday to finish the day at 115.40.
But trading outside Russia saw the currency rebound to end the day up 6% to 100 on the EBS platform and 7.6% at 97.6 elsewhere. The currency is still more than 20% weaker than when it traded during the first half of February.
On the EBS platform, the ruble this week had the three widest daily ranges since 2010, with Monday the widest range on record. Who knows what tomorrow may bring, said Colin Stewart, head of America at Quant Insight in New York.
Ruble Weakens at Command from Putin
Russia has responded to currency weakness by more than doubling its benchmark interest rate to 20% and telling companies to convert 80% of their foreign currency earnings on the domestic market because of the central bank.
A weak ruble would hit living standards in Russia and fuel already high inflation, while Western sanctions are expected to create shortages of essential goods and services such as cars or flights.
Many international companies have announced plans to exit Russia, while the country's credit rating is under pressure from the crisis.
Credit rating agency Moody's said it was reviewing Russia's rating for a downgrade, a move that reflects the negative credit implications for Russia's credit profile from the additional and tougher sanctions imposed.
Meanwhile, Scope Ratings said capital controls raised significant questions about the Russian state's willingness to pay its debts to foreign residents a day after cutting Russia's rating to junk status.
The measures, Scope added, make Russia more vulnerable to banking and liquidity crises. On a separate note, JPMorgan said there was a deep recession in Russia and the bank was reassessing its regional macro forecast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his military command to put the nuclear-armed forces on high alert on Sunday, in response to Western retaliation for its war in Ukraine.
Steps Taken by the Central Bank of Russia
Russia's central bank announced some measures on Sunday to support the domestic market, as it scrambles to manage the impact of sanctions that will block some banks from the SWIFT international payment system.
The central bank said it would continue buying gold on the domestic market, launching an unlimited buyback auction, and easing restrictions on banks' open foreign currency positions.
The currency had found some support last week from Russia's first central bank currency intervention since 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine. Analysts at Rabobank said sanctions on currency reserves removed some of the support the ruble had.
Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank, said in a note on Sunday that the ruble's collapse seemed inevitable on Monday morning, and there was an increased risk of Russia's debt default because of weekend developments.
For the ruble, while you might see it selling a bit, I seriously doubt you'll see anyone placing new bets to sell the ruble at this level – so you might see it weakening, but I don't think you will.
There is a general lack of liquidity, and where you see that liquidity is one-sided, leaning towards ruble sellers. It's going to be tricky; I could see the ruble weakening badly – but just because it's weakening doesn't mean it will.
