The Australian dollar experienced the rally streak to the USD since at the beginning of this week. It reached the level aroubd 0.7595 in The European session trade on Friday 25 of June. 

However, the Aussie rally has not been able to offset all the declines versus USD printed following last week's FOMC announcement. An analyst from the Credit Suisse gave his opinion 

He stayed that the Australian Dollat has a potential to run out of energy and ente4 the consolidation area. That condition may occur untik some weeks ahead. 

The Arguments from the Credit Suisse Analysts

Credit Suisse is one of the global investment banks that have been established since 1856. The analysts there lay out a number of arguments as to why the Australian dollar is threatened.

It is especially with running out of energy to continue the rally. For its part, the interest rate outlook of the Australian Central Bank (RBA) and the Federal Reserve is currently balanced. 

Both have the unconvincing projections of a rate hike due to policy uncertainty. Alexia Jimenez as a macro strategy expert from the Credit Suisse also gave her opinion. 

She stated that her parties change to Neutral in the AUD and NZD. She predicted that the AUD / USD is possibly around the level between 0.7418 and 0.7730 up to some weeks ahead. 

The Effect of Hawkish result by FOMC

The Last week's FOMC results were clearly at the most hawkish end of market expectations. That was for sure putting aside the idea that the Fed was careless or neglectful. 

This is important for the forex market because it cancels out the most standard structurally bearish USD narrative, which is based on the assumption that the Fed's ultra-loose policy warrants USD depreciation. 

At the same time, the argument for a continuous USD rally is still not convincing enough. That was said by Jimenez some days ago. It is based on the update happened in the market. 

As it is known, the Fed Chairman earlier this week delivered testimony that faded some expectations of a post-FOMC rate hike. He stated that the Fed will not raise rates simply because of rising inflatio.

The Decision Taken by the Federal Reserve 

The Fed organization rather continue to monitor a variety of other economic indicators. The analysts think the RBA is likely to become the central bank that is eliminated from its bond-buying program.

It raises the post-pandemic rates earlier than the Fed. However, the RBA has yet to deliver on its tapering plans or projections for a faster rate hike. That is highlighted by the people. 

The latest RBA policy announcement still mentions the plans to keep interest rates on hold until 2024. As a result, the market will continue to follow upcoming announcements to find new catalysts.

They are now predicting RBA to become one of the first central bank that increase the interest rate. That situation may support the AUD, but only in a short-term period. 

The Financial Market is Attracted more on Two Aspects

In a short-term, market will be attracted more on the two aspects of the other monetary policies. Those are the yield curve control and the obligation purchase program which is made. 

That was said by Joseph Capurso, a Strategy expert from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. He predicted that RBA will start to increase their interest rate at the end of 2022 or next year.

Meanwhike, due to the obligation purchase, they still be able to predict that RBA will declare the purchasing reduction to become aud50 million in a meeting. That will be held in 6 of July this year. 

If they are right, there is an opinion that the AUD can recover some declines that they experienced lately. It can become a good progress so far.