The newest jobless claim data in the United States was released last night. It noted that the plan of jobless fund support reaches 793,000. It is worse than the prediction of most experts since they thought that it is around 757,000. So, what’s next?
The speed of market recovery right now is like confirming the dovish bias of The Fed. It brings more risk for the dollar to become weak. It is especially in a short-term period. Before, the Fed leader, Jerome Powell, said something about it.
The Fed may maintain its monetary policy it is even the inflation level is above two percent. Some analysts noted that lately dollar is becoming more sensitive to the interest rate expectation. In one year, the risk taste directs the USD move.
The Fed Statement Is More Positive
It is no doubt again that the risk taste directs the dollar move which is liked as a safe haven asset. It is especially when there is political and financial pressure. There is a good reason for this thinking. It is the positive statement made by the Fed.
Their statement is better than the past few months. Furthermore, it can become an early warning that the dollar weakened is probably ended soon. An expert stated that the USD will still have a better performance than its rivals in the market, especially Euro.
Amidst this weakening period of the Dollar, analysts predict that USD has a chance to be stronger than Euro. It is caused by the European economy recovery prospect which seems not good today. That is not a good situation for Euro for sure.
Elsewhere, the index of Australian consumer trust is increasing this morning. It cannot be separated from the support of several sub-index. The prediction about financial condition is also increasing for the next 12 months. It increases from 108.6 to 111.4.
Optimism on the Sub-Index Economy
Furthermore, the optimism can be also seen on the economy sub – index for 12 months ahead. It increases from 102.7 to 109.8. Meanwhile, the same thing for the next five years is also up from 115.6 becomes 116.2. These situations reflect some things.
It means that most of the Australian consumers are so optimistic that the financial condition will be recovered soon. The Victoria state experiences an increasing consumer trust of 4 percent in February. Then it is followed by New South Wales with the same trend.
New South Wales is up for 3.5 percent. Unfortunately, the declining trend happens to other states such as Queensland and West Australia. The weakness is quite thick and it is caused by the lockdown rules which are applied to those areas.
The decision is made for several reasons. One of them is the new coronavirus case found there. That is why; the government there decided to limit the area and apply the lockdown rule. It is done to handle the virus spread.
AUD / USD Stable In the High Level
The positive release of a consumer trust data index this morning has a role to support the move of the Australian dollar to the USD. The pair of AUD / USD was sold around 0.7731. It was still moving near the highest area in two weeks.
Before, the pair of this currency grouped the rally for three sessions in a row. It is because they are supported by the risk-on sentiment due to the United States stimulus prospect. Meanwhile, the investors may have a different focus.
In the future, they will be more focused on the United States inflation data release. It is especially after the employment data is not the Same as their expectation. The market will find the American economic recovery that will be released this night.
