Pound Sterling continues its consolidation around 1.4150 versus the US dollar in the European trade session today. Some newest British economic data is failed to provide the significant catalyst. 

It is especially amidst some uncertainties due to the pandemic situation and Geo-political zone. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that GDP growth reached 2.3 per cent in April 2021.

That is surpassing the consensus estimate of 2.2 per cent (Month-over-Month). However, the industrial and manufacturing production data in the same period were missed from the expectations.

The British Manufacture Production

UK manufacturing production is at -0.3 percent (Month-over-Month). It means that its annual growth slowed from an estimated 41.8 % to 39.7 % (Year-on-Year). How about the other sectors? 

The Industrial production even posted a performance of -1.3 percent, resulting in its annual growth falling from an estimated 30.5% to 27.5% (Year-on-Year). That can be seen from the data. 

The slowdown in performance in both sectors could worsen if the UK is forced to postpone plans for a full economic opening on 21 June. Meanwhile, the UK-EU relationship is again straining. 

The EU has threatened to impose sanctions on the UK -possibly in the form of customs duties or trade quotas. It is especially if London remains reluctant to implement the Northern Ireland protocols agreed in the Brexit deal. 

Joe Biden is Monitored

Market participants will be monitoring whether US President Joe Biden -who has just arrived in London for the G7 meeting - can "reconcile" the UK-EU dispute. There is one thing to note. 

The European Union yesterday warned British that they may get the strict ruled. It is especially if they don’t put the rules agreed by the protocol. Biden has arrived in England for the G7 meeting. 

He will try to break the deadlock. However, if he failed, the situation can be worse and the financial market will start to measure the fee prospect at certain level. That is not everything. 

The three uncertainties will affect the next GBP movement and direction. First, can the British government do the whole economy opening plan in the 21 of June or will they delay it for 2-4 weeks? 

Other Two Uncertainties 

The next uncertainty is about the trade war threat between the European Union and England. That can be better or even worse. The third is about the really low volatility happened in the market. 

Will it be broken by a bigger catalyst? Elsewhere, the US dollar is still pressed by the Canadian Dollar until the trade happened yesterday. It still in the multi-year lowest range. 

An announcement from the Bank of Canada of BOC on Wednesday signing the hawkish decision. That is why; some analysts will still continue their bearish trend until at the end of next year. 

In the policy meeting done last month, BOC has started the Tapering for their assets purchase. It was from CAD4 million to CAD 3 million per week. BOC doesn’t change its policies for this week. 

The Hawkish Bias will be Maintaine

It seems that BOC will maintain the hawkish bias which was made since May. The Governor of BOC, tiff Macklem and his colleague decided to maintain the 0.25 percent of the interest rate. 

Furthermore, they are also maintaining asset purchase of CAD 3 million. They think that the recent economy condition still needs the huge stimulus support. However, they stated one more thing. 

BOC stated that they still quite optimism about the further economy outlook which can open for the next tapering stage. Widely, the economy development has been in line with the outlook so far. 

The faster vaccination programs and the loosened lockdown which is done gradually, the Canada’s economic has a chance to experience a strong rebound. It is supported by the increasing consumers’ shopping.