The San Francisco Fed President, Mary Daly, has a view for the Fed's interest rate this year. The US dollar weakened even though the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment data rose. The US dollar weakened in the trading session on Saturday (16/Feb) early morning, after the President of the Fed for the San Francisco region, Mary C. Daly, said that the US central bank could potentially not raise interest rates in 2019. 

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Daly explained that this was due to slowing economic growth and the erosion of inflation. Dali said that if the economy grows as expected at 2 percent growth, inflation is 1.9 percent in the absence of price pressures, and there is no indication of acceleration. So, the opinion is the interest rates will not happen this year. 

The dovish statement made the US Dollar Index (DXY) slightly weaker. However, the DXY movement is still consolidated at a one-week high. To see more about this, go to Didimax news page so you are updated with this fundamental aspect of forex trading. It is a good place to learn forex even more from a reliable source.

US Consumer Sentiment Uom Up

A few hours before the Fed official's statement, the release of US economic data showed quite positive results. The University of Michigan version of the US Consumer Sentiment rose to the level of 95.5 in February 2019, much higher than the previous level of 91.2. The preliminary figure is also higher than the expectation of a 93.3 increase.

This positive growth occurred after the US Government Shutdown was terminated, and in line with the change in fundamental expectations related to the discontinuation of the Fed's rate hike. The Consumer Trust Index reflects the level of optimism in US business and financial conditions, which is indicated by the level of savings and consumer spending. 

The UoM consumer confidence index is one that investors always pay attention to after the Conference Board (CB) index of Consumer Confidence. The index was released in 2 versions with an interval of 2 weeks, namely Preliminary (preliminary data) and Revised (final data). The Preliminary Index was released early so it will have more impact.

The Fall Of US Retail Sales

On a monthly basis (MoM), US Retail Sales for December 2018 fall to -1.2 percent. That level was the lowest in the last 9 years, and missed far from expectations at 0.1 percent. Data in November 2018 was revised down to 0.1 percent. 

The decline in fuel sales at a number of gas stations in the US, contributed greatly to the decline in Retail Sales. No better, the Core Retail Sales data - which does not include sales of volatile goods such as food and fuel - dropped dramatically to -1.8 percent, much lower than the 0.2 percent level in the previous month.

US Dollar Index Slips Sharply On 1 Hour Time Frame

No wonder if after the data was published, the Dollar Index (DXY) slumped. The sharp decline was most apparent in the one hour time frame, where the US Dollar Index fell 0.25 percent to a low level of 96.85. The decline did not continue and DXY had edged up 0.18 percent to 97.03. US Retail Sales measures the percentage change in the total value of sales in the retail sector in a given period. 

This data includes overall data, including the sale of volatile prices. US Core Retail Sales (Core Retail Sales) measures the percentage change in the total value of sales in the retail sector in a given period. This data does not include sales of volatile prices. Learn forex through Didimax to gain a better understanding about this matter.